Future of Drones is... Here?

Why the drone industry is in an awkward state of growth and scalability

Let’s talk about the future of drones for a moment.
It’s here. It’s there. It’s coming. It’s far ahead.

Depending on who you ask, you’ll either hear “the future is here”, or “we are still years away” from where we think we should or could be.
The former is more commonly used by anyone trying to sell the tech, and the latter by anyone trying to implement the tech.

Regulation is one major factor in the race towards implementing the future. For many countries, it currently sets forth a compromise in limiting the types of drones allowed in urban environments vs the actual drone needed for the job. You can do the job, but you can’t really do the job. If a flight operation falls into the Specific Category, there are options to proceed with authorization through a PDRA, SORA, or LUC. All of which cost significant time and money to pursue. Possible, but not easily scalable. What works and is proven to be statistically safe and scalable in one place may not work in another, and it will take time to “copy/paste” proven concepts into multiple locations.

“The future is here” because we have established that drones do indeed help us in everyday life scenarios and now we want them to operate at scale. “The future is still years away” because methods of scaling are yet to be proven and successfully determined. The future is here, but maybe not over there, or able to launch everywhere. If it’s not where you are, it will eventually get there, but not as quickly as ringing in the New Year across all time-zones.

Many are eager to dive into the big questions of the future. Will we regularly order our late-night snacks via drone delivery in 5 years? Will grandma be around a few years longer thanks to life-saving medical drones delivering defibrillators faster than paramedics on the ground? Can I catch an Uber-drone to reach my destination quicker during rush-hour? The short answer is, yes, technically.

The in-depth answer we’re looking at is currently in the state of an ellipsis of 3 dancing dots across all languages. We do not exactly know how and when that future will be here. Why? Because we need to consider the challenges of integrating new volumes of tech into an already busy environment, all while keeping in mind how to avoid new solutions in turn creating other problems down the road.

We may not have all the answers to scaling drone taxis, logistics, and medical delivery everywhere today. It can be done, but we are missing a few elements to get there. We are also missing a few elements that should already be part of the ongoing scalability we can see today.

These are, in my opinion, topics in need of attention to better position the current and future state of the drone industry:

1. Hardware must meet industry demands.
   The market has some exceptional drones ready to fly today, but we see evolving demands on sizing, pricing, origin and performance that few options fulfill. We need more variety, not only to compete with the top commercial drone manufacturer - but to offer a standard to build on going forward. A standard in performance statistics which lives up to the promises that this machine gets the job done anywhere. If a machine performs perfectly well at a test facility, will it perform just as well at scale, in other cities, various climates and non-ideal environments with other unconsidered factors? In Sweden people joke about French cars not being built for cold winters, yet several Swedes drive a Renault. Tesla had a bad year in Sweden, unions aside, where several users became stranded with their top-tech cars when temperatures got too low. Can Nordic drone operators trust that hardware built in warmer climates will truly work as reliably as promised in theirs? Do manufacturers have a plan in place to handle situations where hardware underperforms due to unforeseen factors?
   

2. Software gets us flying, but not efficiently enough.
   There are more than a few apps to check the weather, wind, air traffic, NOTAMs, planning/executing flights, keep in communication with stakeholders, and document issues or important sightings from the field.
   These are only a few select examples of apps and programs that keeps an average drone operation running, in addition to the dozens of other apps or programs for work and personal routines. I’m apped out, to be honest.
   In a dream world I’d like to see an eco-system working hand in hand with the dozens of macro-tasks it takes to complete a successful mission in the field. I want to manage a project seamlessly in one place, not get lost in a jungle of programs, log-ins, and subscriptions further widening the door to human error. Can it be done? Probably, but not quickly nor easily, or perhaps even justifiably without the right skillsets and resources.
   

3. Information for the masses.

   Clients often reach out to Yvarbrims asking for help to find a specific solution. Depending on the client’s background, their idea of a solution will either fall into something feasible but hard to find, or something resembling an episode of the Jetsons.
   They’ve tried finding the solution themselves, sometimes spent hours or days searching. Wether it be for a specific component, platform, person, or a place, knowing what to search for and where is not always clear. It helps when solutions are listed online and want to be found, but not all solutions have a strong marketing department. It may seem unimportant, but this is one reason why several people looking to embark on something within drone operations end up pushing timelines, canceling an idea, or acquiring something that does not match their needs (but was easy to find and something to start with)… and may either propel or end future ideas. All information to take decisions are virtually available, but not easily presented. Let’s make it easier to be found, informed, and aligned on expectations.
   
   To grow the drone industry we need implentors to buy and invest in drone solutions. Those implementors buy into solutions when it’s clear they exist and have what they seek, or can be made. It is together with these clients that we slowly raise the bar of standards and possibility to scale and bring the future we envision. It starts with understanding where we are, where we want to go, and openly adressing the bumps and risks along the way.